| Magi | Mundanes | Sta | Weal | Reck | VimC | Aura | Cria | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Programs (C++) | aging_magus.cc | aging_mundane.cc | ||||||
| Spreadsheets (MS Excel) | aging_magus.xls | aging_mundane.xls | ||||||
| Statistic output for multiple characters (text) | output_magus_100000.txt output_magus_1200.txt | output_mundane_100000.txt | ||||||
| Sample output for single characters (text) |
output_magus_01.txt output_magus_02.txt output_magus_03.txt output_magus_04.txt output_magus_05.txt output_magus_06.txt output_magus_07.txt output_magus_08.txt output_magus_09.txt output_magus_10.txt |
output_mundane_01.txt output_mundane_02.txt output_mundane_03.txt output_mundane_04.txt output_mundane_05.txt output_mundane_06.txt output_mundane_07.txt output_mundane_08.txt output_mundane_09.txt output_mundane_10.txt |
0 0 +3 -3 0 0 0 0 +2 -2 |
0 0 0 0 +3 -3 0 0 +5 -5 |
0 0 0 0 0 0 +3 -3 0 0 |
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +5 -5 |
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 6 0 |
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 |
For each year while still alive, do the following (skip years in which the character is in long-term Twilight):
Stats are gathered at 10-yearly intervals and output at the end. If only one magus is run, then there is a verbose "running commentary."
Ars Magica 5th edition rules are used without any modification.
Graphs of sample percentage versus death age by trait refer to the starting value of the trait. Graphs of trait values versus alive age refer to current trait values.
| Cause of death | Percentage of sample |
|---|---|
| Accident | 42.3% |
| Decrepitude | 13.4% |
| Illness | 1.2% |
| Twilight | 43.0% |
Range of ages at death: 35-330
Median age at death: 133
Modal age at death: 140-149
| Age | Percentage of magi living to at least this age |
|---|---|
| 50 | 91.2% |
| 100 | 68.1% |
| 150 | 35.4% |
| 200 | 11.6% |
| 250 | 5.0% |
| 300 | 0.5% |
It should be borne in mind that it is possible to spend many decades in long-term Twilight, during which time no Aging rolls are made.
Current Stamina drops slowly as Aging points are accumulated.
There appears to be a very slight positive correlation between
Stamina and longevity, but on the whole, we can see that Stamina
makes little difference.
Wealth (which governs Longevity Ritual availability and strength, as well as the availability of magical healing and medicine) plays a big role. Poor magi, who cannot afford decent Longevity Rituals or magical healing, have a much shorter life expectancy. However, once you get to nearly average Wealth, being even wealthier yields little further improvement.
Of all the traits, Reckless has the most dramatic and marked impact,
with very reckless magi (who gain Warping points faster, botch more
often, and are more susceptible to accidents) having a greatly
reduced life expectancy, and with very cautious magi living much
longer. Extremely old magi (200+) consist largely of very cautious
and exceedingly cautious individuals, who avoid mystical effects
and stressed spellcasting.
The dual peaks correspond to deaths due to accident, and falling into
Final Twilight, respectively.
There is a very slight positive correlation between a specialisation in Vim and/or Concentration (which helps Twilight avoidance) and longevity, but it does not play a significant role.
Living in a weaker aura tends to extend lifespan, but again, this effect is very slight.
There is not a big difference between Criamon and non-Criamon, but Criamon magi, having Enigmatic Wisdom, are likely to slip into Final Twilight a little earlier. It appears that the advantage to Twilight control is more than offset by the greater chance of falling into Twilight in the first place.
The apparent age of magi of a given chronological age varies quite widely. For an average magus, the apparent age increase at just under half the speed for mundanes. Thus, a 100-year-old magus typically appears to be only 70, although he may exceptionally appear to be either in his thirties, even, or his true age. Almost all extremely old magi do look ancient, however, and there are some magi who must look almost impossibly withered.
Magi typically experience an Aging crisis very rarely, at the rate of one every 100 years, on average. An extremely unlucky magus might experience two or more Aging crises within a couple of decades.
The rate of Aging point gain varies widely, depending on how good the Longevity Ritual is. A 100-year-old magus will typically have accumulated about a dozen Aging points, and thus have a Decrepitude of 1.
It is interesting that the average number of lifetime mystical botches plateaus at about 50 to 60. It appears that this is the most an averagely-lucky magus can suffer before entering Final Twilight. Very lucky magi, or perhaps those who are better at avoiding or controlling Twilight, can stand about 100 to 120 mystical botches before hitting Final Twilight. Equally, a magus might enter Final Twilight having suffered relatively few botches.
Warping points are accumulated fairly rapidly; a typical 100-year-old magus has nearly 200, or a Warping score of 8. It is possible for magi to get well above 275 Warping points (score of 10) without succumbing to Final Twilight. In a very extreme case, about 500 Warping points (score of 13) are possible.
The number of Twilights a magus experiences in his lifetime varies between 0 and 16, with an average of about 5, if he lives to a typical age. Very elderly magi will likely have experienced fewer Twilights - they get to be that old because they are cautious and botch-averse. It is possible, although unlikely, to go hundreds of years without experiencing Twilight.
By the time he gets to 100 - if he lives that long - a magus will have typically - but need not have - been in long-term Twilight for more than half-a-dozen years. On average, a magus will experience his first year-long (or longer) stay in Twilight in his seventh decade. This suggests that long-term Twilight should be a common facet of Hermetic life, with it not being at all unusual for senior magi to randomly miss Tribunal or council meetings, for example.
These results are somewhat dependent on the formulae used for the simulation, but they suggest that Longevity Ritual replacement is rare, occurring every 4 decades, on average. Just under half of these replacements are precipitated by an Aging crisis.
| Cause of death | Percentage of sample |
|---|---|
| Accident | 14.6% |
| Decrepitude | 27.0% |
| Illness | 58.4% |
Range of ages at death: 35-120
Median age at death: 56
Modal age at death: 50-59
| Age | Percentage of mundanes living to at least this age |
|---|---|
| 40 | 96.1% |
| 50 | 72.5% |
| 60 | 42.0% |
| 70 | 5.4% |
| 80 | 1.2% |
| 90 | 0.2% |
| 100 | 0.02% |
Stamina drops by about 1 point every 2 decades, due to Aging point
gain.
Having a good starting Stamina is a definite advantage; each point
of Stamina adds about 2 or 3 years to your life expectancy.
There is a marked difference between those who enjoy a +2 Living Conditions modifier and those who do not, with the former living at least 10 years longer, on average.
Recklessness has a relatively slight effect, since most mundanes do not die due to accidents.
On average, people experience one or two Aging crises in their lifetime.
A fairly wide range, with most people getting a Decrepitude score of 1 in their forties. A typical peasant who reaches 60 will have a Decrepitude score of 3.
No Virtues or Flaws (e.g. Unaging and suchlike) are considered.
Mundanes do not experience any supernatural effects, such as Warping, Longevity Rituals, or magical healing.
The aging roll is based on the chronological age of the magus. That is, the age increases while in long-term Twilight, even if aging rolls are suspended.
Magi start with either zero or a simple die of Warping points.
10% of the time, magi choose not to resist Twilight.
Traits of magi occasionally change: An upgrade of covenant may cause a small rise in Aura and Living Conditions modifier, and a drop in Reckless.
Longevity Ritual availability depends on Wealth, but even a very poor magus spends at most a handful of years without one.
Longevity Ritual strength depends, broadly speaking, on Wealth and decades of age.
There two limits to Longevity Ritual strength. The first limit is at +20, with stronger Rituals becoming noticably harder to get. The second, absolute, limit is +24. This equates to a lab total of 120, which is probably about the absolute maximum (both Arts at about 40, plus 40 from Int + Magic Theory + Aura + other bonuses, such as apprentices, Shape and Material bonuses, and so on.)
| Trait value | Probability | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Int | Sta, Wealth, Reckless, VimConc | Aura | Criamon | |
| -5 | 0.01% | 0.1% | ||
| -4 | 0.09% | 0.4% | ||
| -3 | 0.4% | 4.5% | ||
| -2 | 0.5% | 10% | ||
| -1 | 1% | 20% | ||
| 0 | 6% | 30% | 5% | 92% |
| +1 | 12% | 20% | 10% | 8% |
| +2 | 20% | 10% | 20% | |
| +3 | 50% | 4.5% | 30% | |
| +4 | 7% | 0.4% | 20% | |
| +5 | 3% | 0.1% | 10% | |
| +6 | 5% | |||
Classic binomial distribution for most of these traits. The Int trait (used for magi only) is heavily skewed towards the positive.
| Wealth trait | Living Conditions Modifier | |
|---|---|---|
| Magus | Mundane | |
| -5 | -2 | -2 |
| -4 | -2 | -2 |
| -3 | 0 | -2 |
| -2 | 0 | -2 |
| -1 | +1 | 0 |
| 0 | +1 | 0 |
| +1 | +1 | 0 |
| +2 | +2 | +2 |
| +3 | +2 | +2 |
| +4 | +2 | +2 |
| +5 | +2 | +2 |
See the Living Conditions table in ArM5, page 170.
| Reckless trait | Probability | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accidental Death (roll once per year) | Mystical effect (= 1 Warping point) (roll 5 times per year) | Roll for mystical botch (roll 10 times per year) | Modifier to number of botch dice | |
| -6 or less | 4% | 2% | 0-5+ fewer | |
| -5 | 0.1% | 5% | 5% | 0-4 fewer |
| -4 | 0.2% | 6% | 10% | 0-3 fewer |
| -3 | 0.3% | 7% | 15% | 0-2 fewer |
| -2 | 0.4% | 8% | 20% | 0-1 fewer |
| -1 | 0.5% | 9% | 25% | |
| 0 | 0.6% | 10% | 30% | |
| +1 | 0.8% | 12% | 40% | |
| +2 | 1% | 15% | 50% | 0-1 more |
| +3 | 1.2% | 21% | 65% | 0-2 more |
| +4 | 1.5% | 30% | 80% | 0-3 more |
| +5 | 2% | 40% | 100% | 0-4 more |
For example, consider a magus who is averagely reckless/cautious (Reckless 0): Every year, he has a 0.6% chance of being accidentally killed. Every year, he has 5 chances at 10% to suffer a mystical effect, thus averaging a gain of 0.5 Warping points from mystical effects per year. Every year, he has 10 chances at 30% that a zero will turn up on a mystical (e.g. spellcasting) roll; an average of 3 rolls for (mystical) botch per year. With an average number (3) of botch dice, this will result in an average of slightly under one mystical botch per year.
Base number of botch dice = 1 + (2 * quality die) / 5 (rounding down)
Vim Form Bonus + Concentration = VimConc + age / 10 (rounding down)
For example, a 100-year-old magus has a Vim Form Bonus + Concentration of 15, if he is an extreme specialist in Vim and/or Concentration, 10, if he is averagely specialised, or 5, if his Vim and/or Concentration are atrocious.
Enigmatic Wisdom (Criamon only) = age / 20 (rounding down)
A 100-year-old Criamon has an Enigmatic Wisdom of 5. A 200-year-old Criamon has an Enigmatic Wisdom of 10.
| Aura strength | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0 | 25% |
| Covenant's aura (= Aura trait) | 50% |
| (simple die) | 25% |
| Starting Warping points (at age 35) | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0 | 50% |
| (simple die) | 50% |
If this happens, the Reckless trait decreases by one, the Aura trait increases by one, and the Living Conditions modifier increments within the set of possible values {-2, 0, +1, 2}.
If the magus has an active Longevity Ritual (of less than +20) and at least 10 years have elapsed since it was gained, roll 2*Wealth + quality die. With a 19 or more, a new, stronger Longevity Ritual is gained (maximum strength +20).
Longevity Ritual strength = (simple die) / 2 + Wealth + age / 10 (rounding up)
This is capped at +20, then for every full 3 points above 20, 1 is added (e.g. 26 becomes a +22). The absolute maximum is +24. For example:
| Age | Wealth | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5 | -2 | 0 | +2 | +5 | |
| 35 to 40 | +1 to +4 | +3 to +7 | +5 to +9 | +7 to +11 | +10 to +14 |
| 41 to 50 | +1 to +5 | +4 to +8 | +6 to +10 | +8 to +12 | +11 to +15 |
| 51 to 60 | +2 to +6 | +5 to +9 | +7 to +11 | +9 to +13 | +12 to +16 |
| 61 to 70 | +3 to +7 | +6 to +10 | +8 to +12 | +10 to +14 | +13 to +17 |
| 71 to 80 | +4 to +8 | +7 to +11 | +9 to +13 | +11 to +15 | +14 to +18 |
| 81 to 90 | +5 to +9 | +8 to +12 | +10 to +14 | +12 to +16 | +15 to +19 |
| 91 to 100 | +6 to +10 | +9 to +13 | +11 to +15 | +13 to +17 | +16 to +20 |
| 111 to 120 | +8 to +12 | +11 to +15 | +13 to +17 | +15 to +19 | +18 to + 20 |
| 141 to 150 | +11 to +15 | +14 to +19 | +16 to +20 | +18 to +20 | +20 to +21 |
| 171 to 180 | +14 to +18 | +17 to +20 | +19 to +21 | +20 to +21 | +21 to +22 |
| 201 to 210 | +17 to +20 | +20 to +21 | +20 to +22 | +21 to +22 | +22 to +23 |
| 231 to 240 | +20 to +21 | +21 to +22 | +21 to +23 | +22 to +23 | +23 to +24 |
Mundanes do not get magical healing. They add a Medicine score equal to their Wealth (if positive) to the survival roll.